History is firmly in favour of Porto in this one. They lost their most recent home game 1-0 to Estoril, and to find the last time that The Dragons were defeated twice in a row on home soil in the top flight, you would need to look back to November 2004. The hosts also have an unbeaten record against this opponent, and we fancy they will keep that intact with another win in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 83.66%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Casa Pia had a probability of 4.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 2-0 with a probability of 14.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (13.27%) and 1-0 (10.73%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.47%), while for a Casa Pia win it was 0-1 (2.01%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Porto would win this match.
0.02) 
-0.01) 
