Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.29%. A win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 25.51% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.42%) and 0-2 (8.92%). The likeliest Rayo Vallecano win was 1-0 (7.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.98%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.9% likelihood.
-0.39) 
0.54) 
