Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Darlington had a probability of 27.75% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.82%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.27%) and 2-0 (8.29%). The likeliest Darlington win was 0-1 (7.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that York City would win this match.
