SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 69.7%. A draw had a probability of 17.1% and a win for Burnley had a probability of 13.17%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 9.78%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.53%) and 1-0 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.79%), while for a Burnley win it was 1-2 (3.8%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Burnley |
69.7% ( 0.14) | 17.13% ( -0.08) | 13.17% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 56.87% ( 0.12) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.43% ( 0.23) | 33.57% ( -0.23) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 44.63% ( 0.27) | 55.37% ( -0.26) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.34% ( 0.09) | 8.66% ( -0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.15% ( 0.22) | 29.85% ( -0.21) |
| Burnley Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.27% ( 0.07) | 37.73% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.49% ( 0.07) | 74.51% ( -0.07) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Burnley |
| 2-0 @ 9.78% ( -0.04) 2-1 @ 9.53% ( -0.02)1-0 @ 7.99% ( -0.06)3-0 @ 7.98% ( 0)3-1 @ 7.77% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 4.88% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 4.75% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 3.79% ( 0.02)5-0 @ 2.39% ( 0.02)5-1 @ 2.33% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.32% ( 0.02)5-2 @ 1.13% ( 0.01)6-0 @ 0.97% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 0.95% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.14% Total : 69.7% | 1-1 @ 7.79% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 4.64% 0-0 @ 3.27% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.23% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.2% Total : 17.13% | 1-2 @ 3.8% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 3.18% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 1.55% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.51% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.23% ( -0)Other @ 1.9% Total : 13.17% |
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