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Premier League | Gameweek 11
Nov 4, 2023 at 5.30pm UK
St. James' Park
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Newcastle
1 - 0
Arsenal

Gordon (64')
Gordon (37'), Longstaff (38'), Schar (38'), Guimaraes (88'), Livramento (90+1')
FT(HT: 0-0)

Havertz (37')

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: West Ham 3-1 Arsenal
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.30pm in EFL Cup

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 39.51%. A win for Newcastle United had a probability of 35.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.

The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.28%). The likeliest Newcastle United win was 2-1 (8.09%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.78%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with an 8% likelihood.

Result
Newcastle UnitedDrawArsenal
35.42% (1.307 1.31) 25.06% (-0.463 -0.46) 39.51% (-0.844 -0.84)
Both teams to score 57.38% (1.855 1.86)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
53.92% (2.291 2.29)46.08% (-2.29 -2.29)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
31.62% (2.13 2.13)68.38% (-2.127 -2.13)
Newcastle United Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
74.66% (1.858 1.86)25.34% (-1.856 -1.86)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
39.87% (2.483 2.48)60.13% (-2.481 -2.48)
Arsenal Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
76.86% (0.586 0.59)23.14% (-0.585 -0.59)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
42.99% (0.851 0.85)57.01% (-0.85 -0.85)
Score Analysis
    Newcastle United 35.42%
    Arsenal 39.51%
    Draw 25.06%
Newcastle UnitedDrawArsenal
2-1 @ 8.09% (0.218 0.22)
1-0 @ 8.05% (-0.352 -0.35)
2-0 @ 5.53% (0.055000000000001 0.06)
3-1 @ 3.7% (0.285 0.29)
3-2 @ 2.71% (0.251 0.25)
3-0 @ 2.53% (0.154 0.15)
4-1 @ 1.27% (0.158 0.16)
4-2 @ 0.93% (0.129 0.13)
Other @ 2.62%
Total : 35.42%
1-1 @ 11.78% (-0.3 -0.3)
2-2 @ 5.92% (0.258 0.26)
0-0 @ 5.86% (-0.589 -0.59)
3-3 @ 1.32% (0.143 0.14)
Other @ 0.18%
Total : 25.06%
1-2 @ 8.62% (-0.072000000000001 -0.07)
0-1 @ 8.58% (-0.701 -0.7)
0-2 @ 6.28% (-0.397 -0.4)
1-3 @ 4.21% (0.038 0.04)
0-3 @ 3.06% (-0.138 -0.14)
2-3 @ 2.89% (0.173 0.17)
1-4 @ 1.54% (0.039 0.04)
0-4 @ 1.12% (-0.031 -0.03)
2-4 @ 1.06% (0.081 0.08)
Other @ 2.16%
Total : 39.51%

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Form Guide
Last Game: Man Utd 0-3 Newcastle
Wednesday, November 1 at 8.15pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Wolves 2-2 Newcastle
Saturday, October 28 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 0-1 Dortmund
Wednesday, October 25 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Newcastle 4-0 Crystal Palace
Saturday, October 21 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: West Ham 2-2 Newcastle
Sunday, October 8 at 2pm in Premier League
Last Game: Newcastle 4-1 PSG
Wednesday, October 4 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: West Ham 3-1 Arsenal
Wednesday, November 1 at 7.30pm in EFL Cup
Last Game: Arsenal 5-0 Sheff Utd
Saturday, October 28 at 3pm in Premier League
Last Game: Sevilla 1-2 Arsenal
Tuesday, October 24 at 8pm in Champions League
Last Game: Chelsea 2-2 Arsenal
Saturday, October 21 at 5.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Arsenal 1-0 Man City
Sunday, October 8 at 4.30pm in Premier League
Last Game: Lens 2-1 Arsenal
Tuesday, October 3 at 8pm in Champions League


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