Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mirandes win with a probability of 37.99%. A win for Cartagena had a probability of 34.91% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mirandes win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.64%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.19%) and 2-0 (6.77%). The likeliest Cartagena win was 0-1 (10.1%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.86%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Mirandes would win this match.
