Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Alessandria win with a probability of 38.55%. A win for SPAL had a probability of 33.05% and a draw had a probability of 28.4%.
The most likely scoreline for an Alessandria win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.95%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest SPAL win was 0-1 (11.03%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.24%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood.
