Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Shakhtar Donetsk win with a probability of 71.17%. A draw had a probability of 17.8% and a win for Mariupol had a probability of 11.05%.
The most likely scoreline for a Shakhtar Donetsk win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.56%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.21%) and 2-1 (9.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.46%), while for a Mariupol win it was 0-1 (3.77%).
