Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cardiff MU win with a probability of 47.3%. A win for Haverfordwest County had a probability of 27.6% and a draw had a probability of 25.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cardiff MU win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.35%) and 2-0 (8.22%). The likeliest Haverfordwest County win was 0-1 (7.61%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.92%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Cardiff MU would win this match.
