Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 55.57%. A win for Connah's Quay Nomads had a probability of 22.39% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.84%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.85%) and 0-2 (8.55%). The likeliest Connah's Quay Nomads win was 2-1 (5.86%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-4 was predicted with a 2.7% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Newtown AFC would win this match.
