SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Estudiantes | 13 | 15 | 28 |
| 3 | River Plate | 13 | 18 | 26 |
| 4 | Boca Juniors | 13 | 6 | 24 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a River Plate win with a probability of 71.16%. A draw had a probability of 17.7% and a win for Aldosivi had a probability of 11.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a River Plate win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.32%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (10.88%) and 1-2 (9.5%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.4%), while for an Aldosivi win it was 1-0 (3.71%). The actual scoreline of 0-3 was predicted with a 9.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that River Plate would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aldosivi | Draw | River Plate |
11.18% ( 0.29) | 17.66% ( 0.2) | 71.16% ( -0.49) |
| Both teams to score 48.15% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 58.44% ( -0.11) | 41.56% ( 0.11) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.04% ( -0.11) | 63.96% ( 0.12) |
| Aldosivi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.74% ( 0.46) | 46.25% ( -0.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.08% ( 0.35) | 81.92% ( -0.35) |
| River Plate Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 89.59% ( -0.15) | 10.4% ( 0.15) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 66.05% ( -0.35) | 33.94% ( 0.35) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aldosivi | Draw | River Plate |
| 1-0 @ 3.71% ( 0.07) 2-1 @ 3.24% ( 0.08)2-0 @ 1.43% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 0.94% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.86% Total : 11.18% | 1-1 @ 8.4% ( 0.1) 0-0 @ 4.81% ( 0.03)2-2 @ 3.66% ( 0.06)Other @ 0.79% Total : 17.66% | 0-2 @ 12.32% ( -0.1) 0-1 @ 10.88% ( -0.02)1-2 @ 9.5% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 9.3% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 7.17% ( -0.01)0-4 @ 5.26% ( -0.11)1-4 @ 4.06% ( -0.03)2-3 @ 2.76% ( 0.03)0-5 @ 2.38% ( -0.07)1-5 @ 1.84% ( -0.03)2-4 @ 1.56% ( 0.01)Other @ 4.13% Total : 71.15% |
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