SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 6 | Gimnasia | 13 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Aldosivi | 12 | 4 | 20 |
| 8 | Newell's Old Boys | 12 | 3 | 20 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aldosivi win with a probability of 40.8%. A draw had a probability of 29.7% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 29.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Aldosivi win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.17%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 2-1 (7.76%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.35%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (11.48%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Aldosivi | Draw | Sarmiento |
40.8% ( 0.28) | 29.67% ( -0.16) | 29.52% ( -0.12) |
| Both teams to score 41.93% ( 0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 35.15% ( 0.46) | 64.85% ( -0.45) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 16.21% ( 0.32) | 83.79% ( -0.32) |
| Aldosivi Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.72% ( 0.4) | 31.28% ( -0.4) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.37% ( 0.46) | 67.63% ( -0.46) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 61.01% ( 0.16) | 38.99% ( -0.16) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.28% ( 0.15) | 75.72% ( -0.15) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aldosivi | Draw | Sarmiento |
| 1-0 @ 14.17% ( -0.08) 2-0 @ 8.24% ( 0.04)2-1 @ 7.76% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.19% ( 0.05)3-1 @ 3.01% ( 0.06)3-2 @ 1.42% ( 0.03)4-0 @ 0.93% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.09% Total : 40.8% | 1-1 @ 13.35% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 12.19% ( -0.21)2-2 @ 3.65% ( 0.05)Other @ 0.48% Total : 29.67% | 0-1 @ 11.48% ( -0.15) 1-2 @ 6.29% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 5.41% ( -0.04)1-3 @ 1.97% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 1.7% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.15% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.52% Total : 29.52% |
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