SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| 15 | Colon | 13 | 0 | 16 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 19 | Arsenal Sarandi | 12 | 0 | 13 |
| 20 | Independiente | 13 | -4 | 13 |
| 21 | Velez Sarsfield | 12 | -2 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 40.04%. A win for Independiente had a probability of 31.61% and a draw had a probability of 28.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.11%) and 2-0 (7.67%). The likeliest Independiente win was 0-1 (10.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.21%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 10.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Independiente |
40.04% ( 0.55) | 28.35% ( -0.02) | 31.61% ( -0.52) |
| Both teams to score 46.14% ( -0.08) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.99% ( -0.03) | 60% ( 0.03) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.76% ( -0.02) | 80.24% ( 0.03) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.7% ( 0.3) | 29.3% ( -0.3) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.73% ( 0.36) | 65.26% ( -0.36) |
| Independiente Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.26% ( -0.39) | 34.74% ( 0.39) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.53% ( -0.42) | 71.47% ( 0.42) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Independiente |
| 1-0 @ 12.49% ( 0.12) 2-1 @ 8.11% ( 0.06)2-0 @ 7.67% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 3.32% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 3.14% ( 0.08)3-2 @ 1.75% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 1.02% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 0.96% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.57% Total : 40.04% | 1-1 @ 13.21% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 10.17% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 4.29% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.67% Total : 28.34% | 0-1 @ 10.76% ( -0.1) 1-2 @ 6.98% ( -0.08)0-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.46% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 2.01% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 1.51% ( -0.02)Other @ 2.2% Total : 31.61% |
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