SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 73.7%. A draw had a probability of 15.5% and a win for Southampton had a probability of 10.78%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.2%) and 3-0 (8.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.09%), while for a Southampton win it was 1-2 (3.2%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Arsenal | Draw | Southampton |
73.7% ( -1.57) | 15.52% ( 0.63) | 10.78% ( 0.94) |
| Both teams to score 54.97% ( 1.31) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 67.83% ( -0.16) | 32.16% ( 0.16) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.24% ( -0.19) | 53.75% ( 0.19) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 92.53% ( -0.35) | 7.47% ( 0.35) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 73.15% ( -0.92) | 26.85% ( 0.92) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 59.4% ( 1.63) | 40.59% ( -1.63) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 22.81% ( 1.44) | 77.19% ( -1.44) |
| Score Analysis |
| Arsenal | Draw | Southampton |
| 2-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.29) 2-1 @ 9.2% ( 0.15)3-0 @ 8.82% ( -0.42)3-1 @ 7.96% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 7.87% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 5.72% ( -0.38)4-1 @ 5.16% ( -0.11)3-2 @ 3.59% ( 0.15)5-0 @ 2.97% ( -0.26)5-1 @ 2.68% ( -0.11)4-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.06)6-0 @ 1.28% ( -0.14)5-2 @ 1.21% ( 0.01)6-1 @ 1.16% ( -0.07)Other @ 3.56% Total : 73.69% | 1-1 @ 7.09% ( 0.25) 2-2 @ 4.15% ( 0.25)0-0 @ 3.03% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.08% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.17% Total : 15.53% | 1-2 @ 3.2% ( 0.25) 0-1 @ 2.73% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 1.25% ( 0.13)0-2 @ 1.23% ( 0.12)1-3 @ 0.96% ( 0.11)Other @ 1.4% Total : 10.78% |
ISOCountry Code:
Matched Country Groups:
