Venezuela will be targeting maximum points against a nation that has lost five of their six qualifiers, but we think that they may have to settle for a draw after failing to win any of their previous 12 away matches in World Cup qualifying.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Venezuela win with a probability of 53.7%. A draw had a probability of 26.7% and a win for Bolivia had a probability of 19.65%.
The most likely scoreline for a Venezuela win was 0-1 with a probability of 15.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (11.5%) and 1-2 (8.83%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.06%), while for a Bolivia win it was 1-0 (8.25%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood.
-0.87) 
1.11) 
