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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a New York City FC win with a probability of 66.5%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Philadelphia Union had a probability of 15.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a New York City FC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.01%) and 3-1 (7.64%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Philadelphia Union win it was 1-2 (4.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-5 was predicted with a 0.1% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| New York City FC | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
66.5% ( -0.05) | 18.09% ( 0.04) | 15.41% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 59.54% ( -0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 66.97% ( -0.19) | 33.03% ( 0.19) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 45.24% ( -0.22) | 54.76% ( 0.22) |
| New York City FC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.76% ( -0.07) | 9.24% ( 0.06) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.76% ( -0.15) | 31.24% ( 0.15) |
| Philadelphia Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 65.6% ( -0.12) | 34.39% ( 0.12) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.9% ( -0.12) | 71.1% ( 0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| New York City FC | Draw | Philadelphia Union |
| 2-1 @ 9.62% ( 0.01) 2-0 @ 9.01% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 7.64% ( -0.01)1-0 @ 7.57% ( 0.05)3-0 @ 7.16% ( 0.01)4-1 @ 4.55% ( -0.02)4-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 4.08% ( -0.02)4-2 @ 2.43% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 2.17% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 2.03% ( -0.01)5-2 @ 1.16% ( -0.01)Other @ 4.84% Total : 66.5% | 1-1 @ 8.08% ( 0.03) 2-2 @ 5.13% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 3.18% ( 0.03)3-3 @ 1.45% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.26% Total : 18.09% | 1-2 @ 4.31% ( 0) 0-1 @ 3.39% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.83% ( -0.01)0-2 @ 1.81% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.53% ( -0)Other @ 2.54% Total : 15.41% |
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