Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Porto win with a probability of 43.05%. A win for Arsenal had a probability of 31.43% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Porto win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.86%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.97%) and 2-0 (7.3%). The likeliest Arsenal win was 0-1 (8.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.1%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Porto in this match.