Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barcelona win with a probability of 52.45%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 23.71%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barcelona win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.72%) and 0-2 (9.03%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.29%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 1-0 (6.56%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Barcelona would win this match.
-0.03) 
0.04) 
