Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chesterfield win with a probability of 56.28%. A draw had a probability of 22.6% and a win for Aldershot Town had a probability of 21.16%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chesterfield win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.12%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.89%) and 0-2 (9.41%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.64%), while for an Aldershot Town win it was 1-0 (5.72%). The actual scoreline of 3-4 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chesterfield would win this match.
-0.02) 
0.03) 
