At least three goals have been scored in each of the last five Serie A matches between these teams in Naples (22 in total; more than four on average), but this could well be a more cagey affair. There was little to split the sides in the reverse fixture, so a single goal could decide the destiny of three precious points - leaving the losers playing catch-up in the title race. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 47.72%. A win for AC Milan had a probability of 28.05% and a draw had a probability of 24.2%.

The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.44%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.36%) and 2-0 (7.76%). The likeliest AC Milan win was 1-2 (6.92%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.38%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.9% likelihood.

Result
Napoli	Draw	AC Milan
47.72%	24.23%	28.05%

Both teams to score 56.96%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

54.81%

45.19%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.46%

67.53%

Napoli Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

80.95%

19.04%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.37%

50.63%

AC Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

70.36%

29.63%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

34.32%

65.68%

Score Analysis

Napoli 47.72%

AC Milan 28.05%

Draw 24.23%

Napoli	Draw	AC Milan
2-1 @ 9.44% 1-0 @ 9.36% 2-0 @ 7.76% 3-1 @ 5.22% 3-0 @ 4.29% 3-2 @ 3.17% 4-1 @ 2.16% 4-0 @ 1.78% 4-2 @ 1.32% Other @ 3.22% Total : 47.72%	1-1 @ 11.38% 2-2 @ 5.74% 0-0 @ 5.64% 3-3 @ 1.29% Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.23%	1-2 @ 6.92% 0-1 @ 6.86% 0-2 @ 4.17% 1-3 @ 2.81% 2-3 @ 2.33% 0-3 @ 1.69% Other @ 3.26% Total : 28.05%