With Spezia having all but secured their Serie A status for next season, there is more riding on this fixture for Inter as they bid to keep in touch with Milan at the top. The Nerazzurri were frustrated at the Stadio Alberto Picco last season, but we can see them securing all three points on Good Friday. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Inter Milan win with a probability of 67.49%. A draw had a probability of 19.4% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 13.08%.

The most likely scoreline for a Inter Milan win was 0-2 with a probability of 12.16%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (11.58%) and 1-2 (9.7%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.24%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-0 (4.4%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Inter Milan would win this match.

Result
Spezia	Draw	Inter Milan
13.08%	19.43%	67.49%

Both teams to score 48.22%

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

55.33%

44.67%

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

32.97%

67.03%

Spezia Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

54.95%

45.05%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

19.03%

80.97%

Inter Milan Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

87.75%

12.25%

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

62.03%

37.97%

Score Analysis

Spezia 13.08%

Inter Milan 67.48%

Draw 19.43%

Spezia	Draw	Inter Milan
1-0 @ 4.4% 2-1 @ 3.68% 2-0 @ 1.76% 3-2 @ 1.03% 3-1 @ 0.98% Other @ 1.23% Total : 13.08%	1-1 @ 9.24% 0-0 @ 5.52% 2-2 @ 3.87% Other @ 0.8% Total : 19.43%	0-2 @ 12.16% 0-1 @ 11.58% 1-2 @ 9.7% 0-3 @ 8.51% 1-3 @ 6.79% 0-4 @ 4.47% 1-4 @ 3.56% 2-3 @ 2.71% 0-5 @ 1.88% 1-5 @ 1.5% 2-4 @ 1.42% Other @ 3.2% Total : 67.48%