SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Huracan | 13 | 1 | 18 |
| 13 | Sarmiento | 12 | -7 | 18 |
| 14 | Union | 13 | -1 | 17 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 25 | Platense | 13 | -10 | 10 |
| 26 | Patronato | 12 | -13 | 10 |
| 27 | Talleres | 13 | -13 | 8 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sarmiento win with a probability of 44.72%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 27.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sarmiento win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.38%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.84%) and 2-1 (8.56%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.96%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (9.82%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 3.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Sarmiento would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Sarmiento | Draw | Patronato |
44.72% ( 0.18) | 27.88% ( -0.09) | 27.39% ( -0.08) |
| Both teams to score 45.46% ( 0.2) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 40.1% ( 0.28) | 59.9% ( -0.28) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.83% ( 0.21) | 80.16% ( -0.21) |
| Sarmiento Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.3% ( 0.22) | 26.7% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 38.04% ( 0.29) | 61.96% ( -0.29) |
| Patronato Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 62.03% ( 0.08) | 37.97% ( -0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 25.26% ( 0.08) | 74.74% ( -0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Sarmiento | Draw | Patronato |
| 1-0 @ 13.38% ( -0.06) 2-0 @ 8.84% ( 0.02)2-1 @ 8.56% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 3.89% ( 0.03)3-1 @ 3.77% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.82% ( 0.02)4-0 @ 1.28% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.24% ( 0.02)Other @ 1.93% Total : 44.71% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 10.13% ( -0.11)2-2 @ 4.14% ( 0.03)Other @ 0.64% Total : 27.87% | 0-1 @ 9.82% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 6.28% ( 0)0-2 @ 4.75% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 2.03% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.34% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.64% Total : 27.39% |
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