Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Dundalk win with a probability of 53.16%. A draw had a probability of 25.1% and a win for Sligo Rovers had a probability of 21.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Dundalk win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.95%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.3%) and 2-1 (9.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.88%), while for a Sligo Rovers win it was 0-1 (7.47%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Dundalk would win this match.