SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Arsenal win with a probability of 46.79%. A win for Aston Villa had a probability of 30.33% and a draw had a probability of 22.9%.
The most likely scoreline for an Arsenal win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.18%) and 0-2 (6.49%). The likeliest Aston Villa win was 2-1 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.18%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Arsenal would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
30.33% ( -0.01) | 22.88% ( 0.01) | 46.79% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 63.35% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.53% ( -0.04) | 37.46% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.31% ( -0.05) | 59.68% ( 0.04) |
| Aston Villa Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 75.79% ( -0.03) | 24.21% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 41.45% ( -0.04) | 58.55% ( 0.03) |
| Arsenal Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.58% ( -0.02) | 16.41% ( 0.02) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 53.92% ( -0.03) | 46.07% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Aston Villa | Draw | Arsenal |
| 2-1 @ 7.22% 1-0 @ 5.64% ( 0.01)2-0 @ 4% ( 0)3-1 @ 3.42% ( -0)3-2 @ 3.09% ( -0)3-0 @ 1.89% 4-1 @ 1.21% ( -0)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0)Other @ 2.78% Total : 30.33% | 1-1 @ 10.18% ( 0.01) 2-2 @ 6.53% ( -0)0-0 @ 3.97% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.86% ( -0)Other @ 0.33% Total : 22.87% | 1-2 @ 9.2% ( 0) 0-1 @ 7.18% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 6.49% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 5.54% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.93% ( -0)0-3 @ 3.91% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.5% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.78% ( -0)0-4 @ 1.77% 1-5 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 3.58% Total : 46.79% |
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