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Bundesliga | Gameweek 21
Feb 9, 2024 at 7.30pm UK
Signal-Iduna-Park
FL

Dortmund
3 - 0
Freiburg

Malen (16', 45+7'), Fullkrug (87')
Ryerson (14'), Malen (73')
FT(HT: 2-0)

Form, Standings, Stats

Last Game: Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, February 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga

We said: Borussia Dortmund 3-1 Freiburg

In what should be a competitive encounter, Dortmund may be made to work for their three points on home soil, especially in the midst of an injury and illness crisis. Freiburg have not yet reached the levels they had shown in 2023 though, and are currently stuck in a poor run of form which is likely to continue here. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Borussia Dortmund win with a probability of 58.12%. A win for Freiburg had a probability of 21.24% and a draw had a probability of 20.6%.

The most likely scoreline for a Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.73%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.02%) and 1-0 (7.57%). The likeliest Freiburg win was 1-2 (5.57%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.18%). The actual scoreline of 3-0 was predicted with a 5.7% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Borussia Dortmund would win this match.

Result
Borussia DortmundDrawFreiburg
58.12% (1.01 1.01) 20.64% (-0.067 -0.07) 21.24% (-0.937 -0.94)
Both teams to score 61.83% (-1.195 -1.2)
Goals
Over 2.5Under 2.5
64.69% (-0.937 -0.94)35.31% (0.942 0.94)
Over 3.5Under 3.5
42.67% (-1.05 -1.05)57.33% (1.055 1.06)
Borussia Dortmund Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
87.98% (-0.013000000000005 -0.01)12.02% (0.019 0.02)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
62.52% (-0.033999999999999 -0.03)37.48% (0.039999999999999 0.04)
Freiburg Goals
Over 0.5Under 0.5
70.27% (-1.344 -1.34)29.73% (1.35 1.35)
Over 1.5Under 1.5
34.21% (-1.665 -1.67)65.79% (1.669 1.67)
Score Analysis
    Borussia Dortmund 58.12%
    Freiburg 21.24%
    Draw 20.64%
Borussia DortmundDrawFreiburg
2-1 @ 9.73% (0.087 0.09)
2-0 @ 8.02% (0.365 0.37)
1-0 @ 7.57% (0.349 0.35)
3-1 @ 6.87% (0.057 0.06)
3-0 @ 5.66% (0.254 0.25)
3-2 @ 4.17% (-0.124 -0.12)
4-1 @ 3.64% (0.027 0.03)
4-0 @ 3% (0.132 0.13)
4-2 @ 2.21% (-0.068 -0.07)
5-1 @ 1.54% (0.01 0.01)
5-0 @ 1.27% (0.055 0.05)
5-2 @ 0.94% (-0.03 -0.03)
Other @ 3.51%
Total : 58.12%
1-1 @ 9.18% (0.088000000000001 0.09)
2-2 @ 5.9% (-0.171 -0.17)
0-0 @ 3.57% (0.167 0.17)
3-3 @ 1.69% (-0.117 -0.12)
Other @ 0.3%
Total : 20.64%
1-2 @ 5.57% (-0.157 -0.16)
0-1 @ 4.33% (0.045 0.04)
0-2 @ 2.63% (-0.072 -0.07)
2-3 @ 2.39% (-0.163 -0.16)
1-3 @ 2.25% (-0.153 -0.15)
0-3 @ 1.06% (-0.071 -0.07)
Other @ 3%
Total : 21.24%

Read more!
Read more!
Form Guide
Last Game: Heidenheim 0-0 Dortmund
Friday, February 2 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 3-1 VfL Bochum
Sunday, January 28 at 4.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: FC Koln 0-4 Dortmund
Saturday, January 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Darmstadt 0-3 Dortmund
Saturday, January 13 at 5.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Dortmund 3-3 Standard Liege
Tuesday, January 9 at 10am in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Dortmund 2-2 AZ
Saturday, January 6 at 2pm in Club Friendlies 1
Last Game: Freiburg 1-3 Stuttgart
Saturday, February 3 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Werder Bremen 3-1 Freiburg
Saturday, January 27 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 3-2 Hoffenheim
Saturday, January 20 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 0-0 Union Berlin
Saturday, January 13 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Heidenheim 3-2 Freiburg
Wednesday, December 20 at 7.30pm in Bundesliga
Last Game: Freiburg 2-0 FC Koln
Sunday, December 17 at 2.30pm in Bundesliga


Sports Mole provides in-depth previews and predictions for every match from the biggest leagues and competitions in world football.
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