SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ecuador win with a probability of 63.09%. A draw had a probability of 23% and a win for Peru had a probability of 13.95%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ecuador win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.58%) and 2-1 (9.11%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.48%), while for a Peru win it was 0-1 (6.03%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 15.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Ecuador in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Ecuador.
| Result | ||
| Ecuador | Draw | Peru |
63.09% ( 0.08) | 22.96% ( -0.12) | 13.95% ( 0.04) |
| Both teams to score 40.27% ( 0.37) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 43.25% ( 0.46) | 56.74% ( -0.46) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.31% ( 0.37) | 77.69% ( -0.36) |
| Ecuador Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.41% ( 0.19) | 17.59% ( -0.19) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.84% ( 0.34) | 48.16% ( -0.33) |
| Peru Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 48.87% ( 0.34) | 51.13% ( -0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 14.57% ( 0.22) | 85.43% ( -0.22) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ecuador | Draw | Peru |
| 1-0 @ 15.62% ( -0.18) 2-0 @ 13.58% ( -0.06)2-1 @ 9.11% ( 0.04)3-0 @ 7.87% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.28% ( 0.06)4-0 @ 3.42% ( 0.03)4-1 @ 2.29% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.04)5-0 @ 1.19% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.96% Total : 63.08% | 1-1 @ 10.48% ( -0.01) 0-0 @ 8.99% ( -0.16)2-2 @ 3.06% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.43% Total : 22.96% | 0-1 @ 6.03% ( -0.05) 1-2 @ 3.52% ( 0.03)0-2 @ 2.02% ( 0)Other @ 2.37% Total : 13.95% |
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