Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Le Havre win with a probability of 42.42%. A win for Caen had a probability of 28.9% and a draw had a probability of 28.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Le Havre win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.43%) and 2-1 (8.19%). The likeliest Caen win was 0-1 (10.62%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.19%). The actual scoreline of 2-4 was predicted with a 0.3% likelihood.
