SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Greenock Morton win with a probability of 51.2%. A draw had a probability of 25% and a win for Ayr United had a probability of 23.76%.
The most likely scoreline for a Greenock Morton win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.5%) and 2-0 (9.48%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.9%), while for an Ayr United win it was 0-1 (7.45%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Greenock Morton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Ayr United |
51.2% ( -0.28) | 25.03% ( 0.28) | 23.76% ( 0) |
| Both teams to score 50.46% ( -0.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 48.12% ( -1.09) | 51.88% ( 1.08) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 26.37% ( -0.95) | 73.63% ( 0.95) |
| Greenock Morton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.73% ( -0.54) | 20.26% ( 0.54) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.39% ( -0.88) | 52.61% ( 0.87) |
| Ayr United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.29% ( -0.59) | 36.71% ( 0.59) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.5% ( -0.6) | 73.49% ( 0.6) |
| Score Analysis |
| Greenock Morton | Draw | Ayr United |
| 1-0 @ 11.87% ( 0.31) 2-1 @ 9.5% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 9.48% ( 0.09)3-1 @ 5.05% ( -0.12)3-0 @ 5.04% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.1)4-1 @ 2.02% ( -0.08)4-0 @ 2.01% ( -0.05)4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.68% Total : 51.2% | 1-1 @ 11.9% ( 0.13) 0-0 @ 7.44% ( 0.32)2-2 @ 4.76% ( -0.11)Other @ 0.94% Total : 25.03% | 0-1 @ 7.45% ( 0.2) 1-2 @ 5.96% ( -0.03)0-2 @ 3.74% ( 0.04)1-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 1.59% ( -0.06)0-3 @ 1.25% ( -0.01)Other @ 1.78% Total : 23.76% |
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