Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Girona win with a probability of 45.59%. A win for UD Ibiza had a probability of 27.34% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Girona win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.62%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.84%) and 2-0 (8.76%). The likeliest UD Ibiza win was 0-1 (9.18%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 5-1 was predicted with a 0.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Girona would win this match.
