Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ponferradina win with a probability of 43.77%. A win for UD Ibiza had a probability of 28.67% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Ponferradina win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.61%) and 2-0 (8.43%). The likeliest UD Ibiza win was 0-1 (9.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.93%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 12.9% likelihood.