Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Gallen win with a probability of 51.89%. A win for Basel had a probability of 27.18% and a draw had a probability of 20.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Gallen win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (6.38%) and 2-0 (6.05%). The likeliest Basel win was 1-2 (6.4%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.55%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6.8% likelihood.
