Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Newtown AFC win with a probability of 45.7%. A win for Pen-y-Bont had a probability of 29.79% and a draw had a probability of 24.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Newtown AFC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.27%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.18%) and 2-0 (7.39%). The likeliest Pen-y-Bont win was 1-2 (7.22%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.51%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.2% likelihood.
