The Union have built up some nice momentum at home recently, and playing a Crew side just a few days removed from the emotional high of winning the Leagues Cup, we believe the reigning MLS Cup champions will suffer a letdown in midweek.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Philadelphia Union win with a probability of 41.57%. A win for Columbus Crew had a probability of 34.9% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Philadelphia Union win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.76%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.04%) and 2-0 (5.83%). The likeliest Columbus Crew win was 1-2 (7.94%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 0-1 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
-0.6) 
0.06) 
