Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Chorley win with a probability of 62.38%. A draw had a probability of 20.8% and a win for Southport had a probability of 16.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Chorley win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (10.35%) and 2-1 (9.94%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.81%), while for a Southport win it was 0-1 (4.84%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Chorley would win this match.
