Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lugo win with a probability of 50.85%. A draw had a probability of 28% and a win for Alcorcon had a probability of 21.18%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lugo win was 1-0 with a probability of 16.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.99%) and 2-1 (8.47%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.44%), while for an Alcorcon win it was 0-1 (9.13%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 16.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Lugo in this match.
