Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Almeria win with a probability of 66.35%. A draw had a probability of 20.9% and a win for Lugo had a probability of 12.77%.
The most likely scoreline for an Almeria win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.97%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (13.42%) and 2-1 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.78%), while for a Lugo win it was 0-1 (5.09%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.5% likelihood.
