Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derry City win with a probability of 35.9%. A win for Shelbourne had a probability of 34.16% and a draw had a probability of 29.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derry City win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.21%) and 2-0 (6.97%). The likeliest Shelbourne win was 0-1 (12.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.49%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
