Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Patrick's Athletic win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick's Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Derry City win was 1-0 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
