SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 2 | Dundalk | 18 | 13 | 34 |
| 3 | Derry City | 19 | 15 | 33 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 19 | 8 | 28 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | Derry City | 19 | 15 | 33 |
| 4 | St Patrick's Athletic | 19 | 8 | 28 |
| 5 | Sligo Rovers | 19 | 2 | 25 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a St Patrick's Athletic win with a probability of 38.43%. A win for Derry City had a probability of 33.93% and a draw had a probability of 27.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a St Patrick's Athletic win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.31%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.13%) and 0-2 (7.05%). The likeliest Derry City win was 1-0 (10.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.04%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 7.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
| 33.93% | 27.64% | 38.43% |
| Both teams to score 48.73% |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.98% | 57.02% |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 22.09% | 77.91% |
| Derry City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.42% | 31.58% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.02% | 67.98% |
| St Patrick's Athletic Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.22% | 28.78% |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.37% | 64.63% |
| Score Analysis |
| Derry City | Draw | St Patrick's Athletic |
| 1-0 @ 10.47% 2-1 @ 7.52% 2-0 @ 6.04% 3-1 @ 2.89% 3-0 @ 2.32% 3-2 @ 1.8% Other @ 2.89% Total : 33.93% | 1-1 @ 13.04% 0-0 @ 9.09% 2-2 @ 4.68% Other @ 0.82% Total : 27.63% | 0-1 @ 11.31% 1-2 @ 8.13% 0-2 @ 7.05% 1-3 @ 3.37% 0-3 @ 2.93% 2-3 @ 1.94% 1-4 @ 1.05% 0-4 @ 0.91% Other @ 1.73% Total : 38.42% |
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