Rayo picked up points in 10 of their 19 away league games last season, while Real Sociedad only won eight of their 19 fixtures in front of their own supporters in Spain's top flight. That said, we are expecting Real Sociedad to open their campaign with a narrow victory on Sunday evening.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Sociedad win with a probability of 52.93%. A draw had a probability of 25.2% and a win for Rayo Vallecano had a probability of 21.83%.
The most likely scoreline for a Real Sociedad win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.02%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.29%) and 2-1 (9.42%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.92%), while for a Rayo Vallecano win it was 0-1 (7.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
-0.18) 
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