Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a York City win with a probability of 38.07%. A win for Southport had a probability of 36.42% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a York City win was 0-1 with a probability of 8.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (8.42%) and 0-2 (6.19%). The likeliest Southport win was 1-0 (8.64%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 1.2% likelihood.
